TABLE OF CONTENTS
OBJECTIVES OF THE REPORT
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
BACKGROUND
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND OIL DEMAND IN ASIA
U.S. CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION
U.S. CRUDE OIL EXPORTS
U.S. GULF COAST INFRASTRUCTURE
MARKET ENVIRONMENT
ASIAN CRUDE OIL IMPORTERS
U.S. GULF COAST CRUDE OIL EXPORTERS
U.S. GULF COAST CRUDE OIL PRICING STRUCTURE
REGRESSION MODELS FOR U.S. GULF COAST CRUDE EXPORTS
REFINING VALUE ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY
REFINING VALUE
FREIGHT COSTS PROJECTIONS AND OUTLOOK FOR MARINE BUNKERS
CRUDE OIL COMPARISON
REFINING OVERVIEW OF POTENTIAL MARKETS
MODELLING REFINERY CONFIGURATIONS
“STUDY MARKET” AND “BROAD MARKET” FOR U.S. CRUDE EXPORTS
PLANT GATE AND NETBACK REFINING VALUES
CONCLUSIONS
APPENDICES
1 – KEY UNCERTAINTIES IN BUNKER FUELS OUTLOOK
2 – CRUDE OIL SULFUR AND SPECIFIC GRAVITY
3 – REFINING VALUES AND FREIGHT PROJECTIONS
4 – REFINING CONFIGURATION
5 – SHIPPING DISTANCES
6 – CRUDE OIL PIPELINES, EXISTING / PLANNED
7 – BRENT AND PRODUCT CRACKS ASSUMPTIONS
8 – BASE CASE SUMMARIES
TABLES
1 Economic Growth in Asia and Other Regions
2 Regional Oil Consumption
3 Shares of Incremental Demand: Asia, China, and India
4 U.S. Crude Oil Production
5 Regional U.S. Crude Export Destinations
6 Freight Cost U.S. Gulf Coast to Singapore, Rotterdam, and Eastern Canada
7 2016 Key Asian Crude Imports by Region
8 U.S. Crude Exports to Asian Destinations
9 Historical Average Crude Price Differential vs. WTI
10 Relationship Between Dubai and Brent, Swaps, and Physical Contracts
11 Regression Results Based on Monthly Data – January 2016 – February 2018
12 Refinery Capacity and Utilization Outlook
13 Overview of Potential Markets for U.S. Gulf Coast Crude
14 2017 Refining Process Capacities in Asia and Europe
15 Modelled Crude Processing Capability – Refinery Overview
16 Crude Process Capability
17 WTI-Midland Netback RV vs. Brent 2018 by Refinery Configuration
18 API and Sulfur Characteristics for Three Sweet Crudes
19 2018 Breakeven RV WTI-Midland vs. Qua Iboe
20 WTI-Midland Netback RV Less Dated Brent
21 U.S. Major Export Crude Characteristics
22 Plant Gate Refining Values Minus Dated Brent
23 Freight Projections
24 Netback Refining Value Minus Dated Brent
25 Refinery Configuration Details
26 Shipping Distances Between Major Ports and Asian Destinations
27 Permian Basin Crude Pipeline Capacity
28 Forecast Product Cracks vs. Dated Brent
29 Reliance India Base Case Refinery Charge and Yield
30 Singapore Aggregate Base Case Refinery Charge and Yield
31 North China High Conversion Base Case Refinery Charge and Yield
32 North China Medium Conversion Base Case Refinery Charge and Yield
33 South Korea Medium Conversion Base Case Refinery Charge and Yield
34 Japan High Conversion Base Case Refinery Charge and Yield
35 Japan Medium Conversion Base Case Refinery Charge and Yield
36 Europe Cracking Base Case Refinery Charge and Yield
37 Eastern Canada Base Case Refinery Charge and Yield
FIGURES
1 U.S. Crude Oil Supply
2 U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast by Region
3 Weekly Exports of U.S. Crude Oil
4 U.S. Crude Exports by Region January 2016 – July 2018
5 Quarterly Regional Market Shares of U.S. Crude Exports
6 Country Shares for U.S. Crudes Exported to Asia
7 Discount of WTI-Midland to WTI-Houston
8 U.S. Crude Exports and WTI Price Differentials
9 Sour Crude Differentials to WTI-Cushing
10 Monthly Average WTI Differentials – Houston/Cushing/Midland August 2018
11 Major Export Markets for U.S. Gulf Coast Crudes
12 China’s Coastal Refineries
13 Japan’s Refineries
14 South Korea’s Refineries
15 India’s Refineries
16 Singapore’s Refineries
17 Northwest Europe’s Refineries
18 2018 Light Crude Tier Volumes – Study Market
19 2018 Light Crude Tier Volumes – Broad Market
20 2018 Plant Gate RV vs. WTI-Midland
21 Bonny Light vs. WTI-Cushing FOB Price Basis
22 Discount of NYMEX WTI vs. WTI-Houston
23 Change in Plant Gate RV vs. WTI-Midland 2020 / 2018
24 Change in Plant Gate RV vs. WTI-Midland 2025 / 2020
25 2018 Netback RV vs. WTI-Midland
26 2018 Dubai Plant Gate RV vs. Mars
27 2018 Dubai Netback RV vs. Mars
28 Dubai-Mars FOB Price Differential
29 Change in Dubai vs. Mars Plant Gate RV 2020 / 2018
30 Change in Dubai vs. Mars Plant Gate RV 2025 / 2020
31 2018 WTI-Midland Netback Value vs. Study Market Volume
32 2018 WTI-Midland Netback RV Curve vs. Broad Market Volume
33 2020 WTI-Midland Netback Value vs. Broad Market Volume
34 2025 WTI-Midland Netback Value vs. Broad Market Volume
35 World Crude Oil Proved Reserves
36 IMO MARPOL Annex VI Marine Bunker Fuel Sulfur Content
37 MARPOL Annex VI Compliance
38 Quality Specifications of Major Crudes
